Brazilian Migration: Why the US Is the Preferred Destination

Importantly, the analysis includes a bunch of variables that tryna measure how intense armed conflicts are and how far they spread

 Yo, like, we also gotta peep state fragility and violence, ya know? Plus, we keep an eye out for any political instability in non-conflict areas. It's hella important, fam. Trying to measure various vibes of state fragility and violence is like, super complicated according to the research on asylum41. They're like, not even really connected to legit wars, and it's hard to find solid info on them and stuff. Anyway, our model can totally flex with all the different types of state fragility, like how intense the terror and human rights abuse is (Political Terror Scale) and an indicator for democracy. When interpreting the results of this model, it's important to keep in mind that we should only focus on the vibes of the continuous variables (like GDP, percentage of area affected by conflict, networks). The cat variables (i.e. the indicators of poli terror scale and democracy) are like, not even close to being comparable to the continuous ones.

The results confirm that the presence of mad intense conflicts and the big scope of those conflicts are like major factors for new asylum applications42. State fragility in the country of origin not necessarily related to armed conflicts also creates the conditions for people to dip out to another country and seek asylum. The above results were like totally expected, but like it's worth noting that other drivers were also shown to be hella significant as well. Economic factors, like the vibes in countries of origin, were also found to be relevant AF drivers of asylum applications. The results show that if the GDP of a country is low, more people are like "nah, gotta bounce" and seek asylum elsewhere. This lowkey implies that peeps deciding to dip and seek asylum are also influenced by the struggle bus of bad economic conditions and being broke af, plus dealing with some sketchy situations.

 This can be explained by the way that economic and armed-conflict, as well as economic and state fragility are like, super connected factors, you know? 

Prolonged violence and state-based armed conflicts be like, they straight up cause poverty. So, like, the link between how the economy is doing in the countries where people come from and how many people seek asylum might get mixed up because GDP mostly covers all the stuff that affects them together.OMG, like the previous sets of models, the vibe in the destination country from previous migrant communities is also, like, super relevant for peeps seeking asylum. Yo, peeps from the same squad already chillin' in the host country can totally help out the newbies by offering mad support. It's all about reducing the risks and the cost of migration, fam.High-key educated peeps with secondary or tertiary education are way more likely to be like, "I wanna dip and migrate" than those who only finished primary school. The unemployed be craving more than the employed be like, let's dip to another country, while people who ain't working43 are less likely to be down for that move.

The urge to dip outta here and jet abroad is like totally connected to personal stacks, the economy, and material vibes. The chart above flexes income quintiles that measure the relative wealth in countries of diff income categories (that is, an individual’s wealth compared to that of others44). Like, yo, for real, in low income countries, being rich doesn't really have any correlation with wanting to bounce and migrate, you feel me? This means that we can't really say if the richest peeps in the population are more or less likely to wanna dip and move abroad than the poorest. In middle income countries, peeps in the third, fourth, and fifth income quintiles have like 5% less chance than the poorest ones (aka those in the bottom quintile) to be all like "I wanna dip and migrate." In high income countries, the connection between cheddar and the urge to dip becomes hella stronger and more relevant than for other groups of countries. Fr, the richer peeps are, the less they wanna dip overseas. 

This relationship gets hella stronger for bougie peeps. 

OMG, peeps in the second income quintile are, like, 9% less likely to wanna dip than those at the bottom. The richest peeps are like 14% less likely to wanna dip than those in the bottom quintile. Yo, the JRC did some extra analysis (Migali and Scipioni 2018) and found that being hella satisfied with life and being content with your money situation makes it less likely for you to wanna dip and migrate.This set of models at the individual-level suggests that the urge to dip cannot be used to spill tea to policy makers about the size of potential migration and the vibes of future migrants. OMG, like, for real, over 20% of peeps wanna go on an international trip, but only less than 1% actually make it happen. So sad, tbh. Furthermore, our analysis also suggests that the desire to dip abroad represents individual aspirations to glow up one's own conditions due to life dissatisfaction, rather than a concrete intention to bounce. OMG, like our findings totally show that if you wanna bounce and move somewhere else, you're probs gonna have less cash money. Also, in rich countries, the broke peeps are more likely to wanna jet off on an international adventure. As like, already peeped in Chapter 2, there's, like, always this big gap between wanting to dip and actually making the move abroad. Those peeps getting ready for their international migration journey are like always fewer than those who just wanna dip abroad, ya know? The lit values of migration prep can be peeped in lowkey and mid income countries.